AP vs AD 
Miss Fortune is one of the most debated questions in ARAM: Mayhem, so here's a detailed look at what the data says.
TL;DR at the end!
1. The headline numbers
Data: 24,348 Miss Fortune games from patch 26.20 (remakes excluded). MF's pickrate is about 12% of all ARAM: Mayhem games, which makes her one of the most popular champions.
How I split the builds: by the legendary items MF finished the game with.
- AP: only AP items (Liandry's, Blackfire Torch, Rabadon's, Shadowflame, Rylai's, Morellonomicon, Void Staff, Bloodletter's Curse, Rite of Ruin, Horizon Focus, Zhonya's…)
- AD: only AD items (Collector, Infinity Edge, Bloodthirster, Lord Dominik's, Axiom Arc, Serylda's, Muramana, Rapid Firecannon, BotRK, Hubris, Edge of Night…)
- Hybrid: at least one of each
| Build | Share of MF games | Win rate | 95% confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD | 58.4% | 48.4% | 47.6–49.2% |
| AP | 30.2% | 50.2% | 49.0–51.3% |
| Hybrid | 11.2% | 45.8% | 44.0–47.7% |
AP is ahead of AD by 1.8 points, which is statistically significant (p = 0.01). Hybrid trails both pure builds by 2.5–4.5 points.
Patch History:
| Patch | AD WR | AP WR | Hybrid WR | AP lead over AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.17 | 48.5% | 51.8% | 45.1% | +3.3 |
| 26.18 | 48.0% | 51.9% | 45.9% | +3.8 |
| 26.19 | 48.5% | 52.4% | 43.1% | +3.9 |
| 26.20 | 48.4% | 50.2% | 45.8% | +1.8 |
Across all four patches, AP was ahead of AD every single time. On average AP MF won 51.5% and AD MF 48.4%, a lead of about 3 points. AD stayed at about 48% throughout, while AP moved between 50% and 52%. 26.20 is simply AP's weakest patch of the four, not a sign that AD has caught up.
About hybrid: roughly one MF in nine ends the game with a mixed inventory, and that has lost every patch. The worst cases are real half-and-half builds: 3 AP items plus 1–2 AD items win just 40–43%. The most common stray items are a Collector or Infinity Edge in an otherwise AP build, and a Liandry's or Blackfire Torch in an otherwise AD build.
2. Team comp: check your teammates first
Your own team decides more than anything else whether AD or AP is the better pick. Two things matter: how many other marksmen are on your team, and how much magic damage your team has.
Other marksmen on your team
| Other marksmen | Share of games | AD WR | AP WR | Hybrid WR | AP vs AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 50.5% | 49.0% | 45.1% | −1.5 |
| 1 | 46% | 48.6% | 51.9% | 46.8% | +3.3 |
| 2+ | 17% | 41.2% | 47.9% | 44.8% | +6.7 |
- AD MF collapses when there are 2+ other marksmen on the team. That's three marksmen counting MF, and the enemy can simply stack armor.
- AP MF barely cares. It stays around 48–52% whatever the marksman count.
- With no other marksman, AD is fine, and even slightly ahead.
(Marksmen = champions whose primary class is Marksman, excluding Teemo.)
Magic damage on your team
Here I counted allies who deal mostly magic damage on average. Note that this includes many tanks and supports like Leona, Nautilus or Ornn, not just mages.
| Magic-damage allies | Share of games | AD WR | AP WR | Hybrid WR | AP vs AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 18% | 42.8% | 50.3% | 46.6% | +7.4 |
| 2 | 38% | 49.4% | 52.3% | 47.4% | +2.9 |
| 3+ | 44% | 49.2% | 47.6% | 43.8% | −1.6 |
- When your team has almost no magic damage, AP MF is about 7.5 points better than AD. You're the only one who can give the team mixed damage.
- With 3+ magic-damage allies, the advantage flips to AD, though it's small.
Which of the two matters?
The two overlap: marksmen are mostly physical damage. So I compared games with the same number of magic-damage allies, with and without another marksman:
- An extra marksman costs AD MF about 3 points even when the number of magic-damage allies is the same.
- AP MF loses nothing from an extra marksman.
The worst case combines both: 0–1 magic-damage allies plus at least one other marksman. AD MF wins 41.6% there, AP MF 50.6%.
Interestingly, with 0–1 magic-damage allies but no other marksman, AD and AP are even (49.2% vs 48.4%, though that's only ~300 games per build). So the missing magic damage mainly hurts when another marksman is on the team as well.
Rule of thumb
| Your team | Build |
|---|---|
| 2+ other marksmen | AP |
| 1 other marksman and few magic-damage allies | AP |
| No other marksman, 3+ magic-damage allies | AD |
| Anything in between | Depends on augments (next section) |
And whatever you pick: hybrid is the worst option in nearly every scenario.
3. Augments: AP MF needs its augments much more than AD MF
AD MF gets a modest boost from AD augments. AP MF only works if it gets the right augments.
The AP augments
I hand-picked 18 augments that make AP MF work, mostly ones that scale with AP, give ability haste or reward ability hits:
| Augment | Tier | Taken in % of AP MF games | AP WR |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pursuit of Haste | Gold | 8.2% | 55.3% |
 Skilled Sniper | Gold | 23.2% | 52.9% |
 Big Brain | Gold | 1.6% | 52.6% |
 Combusting Interest | Gold | 8.8% | 52.4% |
 Bread and Cheese | Gold | 11.5% | 52.1% |
 Recursion | Gold | 12.0% | 51.4% |
 From Downtown | Gold | 11.6% | 51.0% |
 Magic Missile | Gold | 16.8% | 50.4% |
 Phenomenal Evil | Gold | 6.3% | 49.6% |
 Back To Basics | Prismatic | 4.0% | 53.8% |
 Wooglet's Witchcap | Prismatic | 3.8% | 53.1% |
 Infinite Recursion | Prismatic | 8.0% | 52.7% |
 Infernal Conduit | Prismatic | 7.3% | 52.1% |
 Eureka | Prismatic | 9.2% | 50.8% |
 Archmage | Prismatic | 8.9% | 49.8% |
 Homeguard | Silver | 6.5% | 54.5% |
 Forged By The Master | Silver | 5.1% | 53.6% |
 Purist - Caster | Silver | 5.3% | 49.2% |
The AD augments
For comparison, the most common AD augments: attack, crit and attack-range augments that AD MF takes far more often than AP MF.
| Augment | Tier | Taken in % of AD MF games | AD WR |
|---|---|---|---|
 Critical Missile | Gold | 18.5% | 50.2% |
 Upgrade Infinity Edge | Gold | 16.6% | 50.3% |
 Soul Siphon | Gold | 16.4% | 50.7% |
 Critical Rhythm | Gold | 10.1% | 47.8% |
 Lil' Extra Help | Gold | 9.8% | 49.3% |
 Scopier Weapons | Gold | 9.1% | 50.0% |
 It's Critical | Gold | 7.4% | 47.7% |
 Tripleshot | Prismatic | 11.1% | 52.1% |
 Scopiest Weapons | Prismatic | 6.6% | 47.7% |
 Dual Wield | Prismatic | 6.5% | 50.4% |
 Fan The Hammer | Prismatic | 5.8% | 48.2% |
 Double Tap | Prismatic | 5.5% | 42.8% |
 Ultra Hydra | Prismatic | 3.7% | 56.6% |
 Tap Dancer | Prismatic | 3.7% | 47.0% |
 Blunt Force | Silver | 11.6% | 50.9% |
 Upgrade Collector | Silver | 8.9% | 47.7% |
 Deft | Silver | 5.6% | 51.3% |
 Tank It Or Leave It | Silver | 4.4% | 48.5% |
 Typhoon | Silver | 3.9% | 45.0% |
 Crit 'n Cast | Silver | 3.7% | 44.6% |
Most AD augments land around 47–51% on AD MF. The standouts are Ultra Hydra (56.6%) and Tripleshot (52.1%). Draw Your Sword isn't in the table because it's rarer (2.5% of AD games), but it wins 58.5%.
Win rate by number of AP augments
| AP augments | Share of AP MF games | AP WR |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 44.7% |
| 1 | 37% | 47.2% |
| 2 | 36% | 52.9% |
| 3+ | 16% | 53.8% |
- With 0 or 1 AP augments, AP MF is below average. That's almost half of all AP MF games.
- From 2 AP augments on, AP MF wins about 53%, well above both builds' overall averages (AD 48.4%, AP 50.2%).
Win rate by number of AD augments
| AD augments | Share of AD MF games | AD WR |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 46.4% |
| 1 | 32% | 47.5% |
| 2 | 35% | 48.3% |
| 3+ | 21% | 51.3% |
The asymmetry: AD MF gains about 5 points going from no AD augments to three or more. AP MF gains about 9 points going from no AP augments to three or more. AD's base kit plus Collector and Infinity Edge does most of the work; AP MF depends on its augments. Yet 11% of AP MF players end the game with no AP augment at all, and 37% with only one.
What if your first augment isn't an AP augment?
Since you pick your build at the start of the game, the question is whether AP still works when the first augment doesn't cooperate. These numbers are from the last four patches (26.17–26.20), because the groups get small otherwise:
| First augment | AP WR | AD WR |
|---|---|---|
| AP augment | 51.4% | 44.8% |
| Not an AP augment | 48.9% | 48.1% |
A non-AP first augment costs AP MF about 2.5 points, but AP is still level with AD. What happens next depends on the second augment:
| After a non-AP first augment | Share of these AP MF games | AP WR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd augment is AP | 42% | 50.8% |
| 2nd augment not AP either | 58% | 47.5% |
So a non-AP first augment doesn't ruin an AP game. Only when both of the first two picks miss does AP fall behind, and then it needs both of the last two picks to be AP augments to recover.
Conclusion
AP MF only works with its augments. AD MF works almost regardless of them.
- AD MF stays between 46% and 51% no matter how many AD augments it gets. Collector, Infinity Edge and MF's own kit do most of the work, and the augments are a bonus on top.
- AP MF ranges from 45% to 54%. With 0–1 AP augments it's a below-average build. With 2+ it beats both builds' overall averages by a clear margin.
4. Enemy team comp: matters less than your own team
These numbers are from the last four patches (26.17–26.20, ~100,000 MF games), because a single patch is too noisy for enemy breakdowns. Over that period, AP MF leads AD MF by about 3 points overall. Most enemy comps barely change that, with one exception.
Divers
Here, divers are enemies whose primary class is Fighter or Assassin.
| Enemy divers | Share of games | AD WR | AP WR | Hybrid WR | AP vs AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 49.8% | 56.0% | 48.2% | +6.2 |
| 1 | 38% | 48.7% | 51.8% | 45.8% | +3.1 |
| 2 | 31% | 47.2% | 50.0% | 43.5% | +2.8 |
| 3 | 12% | 48.3% | 49.7% | 43.0% | +1.4 |
| 4+ | 2% | 49.1% | 44.9% | 40.9% | −4.2 |
- Against a team with no divers, AP MF wins 56%. Nobody gets on top of you, and you can keep zoning with E and the burn from Liandry's and Blackfire.
- The more divers they have, the more AP's lead shrinks. Against 4+ divers AD comes out ahead, though that comp is rare (2% of games) and the sample is small.
- Players don't adjust to this at all: the AP share stays at about 33% whatever the enemy has.
Other classes
Tanks, mages, marksmen and supports barely change anything. AP stays ahead by roughly 1–5 points no matter how many of them the enemy has. If anything, AP does even better against 3+ mages (56.0% vs 49.8% for AD).
TL;DR
- AP MF is slightly better than AD MF overall: 50.2% vs 48.4% on 26.20, and AP has been ahead on each of the last four patches (about +3 points on average).
- Don't go hybrid. Mixing AD and AP items wins only 45.8%, worse than either pure build.
- Your own team matters most. With 2+ other marksmen, AD MF drops to 41% while AP holds at 48%. With no other marksman, AD is fine.
- AP MF needs its augments, AD MF doesn't really. AP goes from 45% with no AP augments to 54% with three or more. AD stays between 46% and 51% regardless.
- A non-AP first augment doesn't ruin AP. Only when the first two augments both miss does AP fall behind.
- The enemy team is just a tiebreaker. AP is strongest against teams with few divers (56% vs no fighters/assassins). Only against heavy dive is AD better.
In short: AD is the safe default. Go AP when your team is marksman-heavy or lacks magic damage, and when the AP augments show up.